On Thursday this week, British Prime Minister Tony Blair will announce the date he will step down as premier, all but cementing a July handover to his long time political friend and rival Gordon Brown. As Chancellor Brown moves nextdoor into Number 10 Downing Street, he faces some big challenges on the economy and on reinvigorating the domestic policy agenda. But the only way he will be able to make the necessary break with the Blair era and restore the Labour Party’s electoral fortunes is to offer a full and unequivocal apology for the mistakes of the government’s policy towards Iraq.
The Labour Party that he will lead into the next general election in two year’s time trails a resurgent Conservative Party in the polls by as much as ten percentage points. In last week’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, Labour was kicked out of office by a Scottish National Party committed to full independence for Scotland. Labour also suffered heavy losses in the Welsh Assembly and in local government elections held on the same day.
For the past ten years the UK economy has performed better than any other in Europe and has seen greater stability than in the US, but there are clouds on the horizon. Inflation and interest rates are inching up, with the latter increasing the chances of a painful hard landing ending the house price boom. The pound has strengthened and is now worth more than two dollars. This might be good for British holidaymakers in Florida or weekend shopping sprees in New York, but British exporters are facing less favourable terms of trade. Labour’s increases in funding for schools and hospitals have been significant but there are concerns that the money has not always resulted in commensurate improvements in the performance of these core public services. Terrorist attacks, fears about immigration and a spate of violent knife and gun crimes in British cities further undermine what pollsters consider as the all important ‘feel-good factor’.
But this is all really just window-dressing for the main reason why Tony Blair’s government has become so unpopular: the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Blair’s fate is sealed and he will never get out from under this cloud. Unless Brown does something dramatic to break with the past, the complex cluster of issues around the government’s Iraq policy will blight his premiership as well.
Blair has already annouced the timetable for a planned withdrawal of British troops. This move barely registered in the polls, so Brown will need to do more than get British troops out of Iraq. He will need to address the real reason why British voters so disapprove of Blair’s Iraq policy. These boil down to two issues: first, Parliament (and the public at large) was duped by bad intelligence and political spin about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction as the reason for the invasion; second, Britain went along blindly with the Pentagon’s disastrous policies for the rebuilding of Iraq, the most egregious of which was the disbanding of the Iraqi army and police forces.
For politicians, sorry is the hardest word. Hillary Clinton has so far refused to say it and she will find it hard to beat Barak Obama for the Democratic Presidential nomination unless she recants her Senate vote for the invasion of Iraq. Gordon Brown must not make the same mistake. He must apologise for government’s mistakes and be clear that he was there at the Cabinet table when these things were discussed. Blair asked the British people to trust him on Iraq, and that trust has been destroyed. The public will only give its trust again if the government admits its mistakes. Rather like Mrs Thatcher before him, ten years in office have made Blair a creature consumed by his own vanity, self-importance and sheer stubbornness. Just as Bush will never bring himself to say sorry, nor will Blair. That is why Brown must do so. And quickly.
As well as being the right thing, in political terms it will be a smart move. The Conservative Party fully backed the war and David Cameron, the new Conservative leader has not yet admitted he and his colleagues made a mistake. In saying sorry, Brown will outflank Cameron’s Conservatives, jumpstart the process of rebuilding trust with the electorate, reconnect with Britain’s key continental allies that opposed the war, and most simply but most importantly, give himself the chance to move on to the new issues facing Britain.
As a new Prime Minister, Brown needs to show that he can deliver the things that his predecessor has been unable to achieve - both at home and abroad. What better way to start than with the one act that his predecessor can never, will never, do - say sorry for Iraq.